Michael Saldivar · Verified Reasoning

Don't trust a model's answer. Ask when it can be trusted.

I'm Michael Saldivar. I work on scalable oversight: systems that decide when an LLM's reasoning deserves reliance, and decline to answer when it doesn't.

Research

Theoria

Theoria is an open-source verifier for LLM reasoning. It makes a model rewrite its answer as a typed, step-by-step proof, sends every step to independent adversarial judges, and certifies the answer only if each step survives. When a step can't be defended, the system declines rather than guesses. The point is calibration: knowing when an answer can be trusted.

91.4%strict certified precision on HLE‑Verified Gold (n=185)
56.8%coverage; the rest declined, on purpose
97.1%certified precision out of distribution (GPQA Diamond)
~30sto reproduce every published number from a committed database
Saldivar, M., Slivinski, B. Theoria: Rewrite‑Acceptability Verification over Informal Reasoning States. arXiv:2607.01223 [cs.AI], July 2026.

The public release is the v0. I'm building what comes after it.

Prior systems

The road here

Fail-closed proof-certificate checker

2025 · private codebase, demo on request

Theoria's formal precursor. A model emits axioms in a restricted JSON DSL plus a replayable certificate; a small deterministic checker replays each step with exact arithmetic, explicit rewrite substitutions, and a whitelisted unit registry. It never searches, and any mismatch fails. 261 tests. Its coverage limits on informal reasoning are what motivated Theoria's adversarial LLM judges.

Live statistical-arbitrage system

2023–2025 · Interactive Brokers API

Cointegration-based trading across ETFs, futures, and equities, run live with positive returns in backtest and production. The discipline was the lesson: backtests are claims, and live capital is the adversarial judge.

Background

Before this

2023–2025 Independent quantitative researcher · self-funded research, trading, and dozens of LLM-system prototypes
2021–2023 Analytics engineer, Insurify · production data pipelines and bidding algorithms for multimillion-dollar marketing auctions
2021 MIT, B.S. Mathematics · graduate coursework in mathematical statistics, stochastic processes, and numerical methods
Contact

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